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Friday, 26 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v MK Dons

Last week Easyodds.com football tipster and City fan Ross Casey found a 49/20 winner by backing the draw in our match with Fleetwood. Whilst it is another point gained for our excellent start to the season – and retains our now 15 match unbeaten run in League One - the fact we drew despite holding a 3-1 lead is a little disappointing.

If we are coming into our match rueing the loss of two points, MK Dons are arriving in stellar form. ‘The franchise’ has been incredibly consistent in recent weeks, which has left them in second place – five points behind us with a game in hand.

We have passed every test handed to us in League One thus far but this could be the biggest test yet. Can the Robins continue their great 15 match unbeaten run in League One? It’s a huge clash between the two teams at the top of the league! Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – last week they made us stand-alone favourites at 11/4 and we are still favourites but are now a best price of 5/2. The bookies are keeping with us!

MK Dons have a reputation of being the nearly men in League One after multiple play-off losses – but the current squad under Karl Robinson look the real deal. The bookies make them 8/1 to win League One – despite their current position they are behind three clubs in the market. Their matches this season have plenty of interesting trends we can look at so let’s get to it!”

BRISTOL CITY – 23/20 (Bet365)
MK DONS – 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
DRAW – 11/4 (BetVictor)

It doesn’t take a genius to see a trend in Bristol City’s matches that we score goals. In ten matches we have only failed to hit the net once and that was against Orient when Baldock’s goal was disallowed for no reason at all.

We have scored a mighty impressive tally of 13 goals in our last five games and even though most have been scrappy – how refreshing is it that we are now scoring chances like that and not being a whisker away or balls not falling to our strikers like we seemed to have in the past.

MK Dons have been even more extravagant with the amount of goals they have been hitting past teams! They have scored an almighty 20 goals in their last six games. With two free-scoring teams, this should mean that both teams will score at Ashton Gate on Saturday. That is a best price of 4/6 which could be a steal!

The over/under market is also definitely worth looking at. These trends don’t always work out – look at last weekend’s match against Fleetwood for that! A meeting of the best two defences in the league ended in a 3-3 draw! If you fancy these two in-form teams to cancel each other out, under 2.5 goals is available at 28/25. If you think this match will go to trend an even better price of 2/1 is available on over 3.5 goals. That bet has been a winning one in 63% of MK Dons matches this season.

Before we let in three goals to Fleetwood last weekend our defence had been water-tight. We had kept three clean sheets on the bounce before that match and have kept three clean sheets from four in the league at Ashton Gate. Keeping a side out with the scoring record of MK Dons will be extremely difficult but if you think we can do it odds of 23/10 are available.

If you follow my betting previews on Easyodds.com you will know that I am a huge fan of backing players to score against their former teams. Football narrative seems to enjoy these great stories – just see this week’s goals for Frank Lampard, Connor Sammon and Mohamed Diame for proof of that! For that reason I will probably be backing our top goalscorer Aaron Wilbraham to score against his former side.

He has now scored eight goals in nine games for the Robins and I believe he is value at 6/4 to score against his ex-teammates – just like super Sammy Baldock did last season! Kyle McFadzean – the centre half Sean O’Driscoll tried to sign for us will have his hands full against both Wilbraham and Agard.

I have already highlighted MK Dons’ attacking prowess in the City part of this preview but to highlight that again they have scored in each of their three away matches this season – and won two of those matches.

I actually think on the back of their amazing results they are a very good price at 11/4. I realise not many fans bet against their own teams but objectively looking at the facts that seems a very tempting best price.

Despite only drawing one game this season, taking them in the draw no bet market could prove fruitful for the more cautious punters out there. 43/25 is the best price in the market where you will get the win for an away victory or your money back in the case of a draw.

Of all of their goalscorers this year – of which there have been many – perhaps Benik Afobe is the man to most fear most. The on-loan Arsenal man has scored nine goals in 11 games and is available at 21/10 to score at Ashton Gate. Midfielder Deli Alli is getting rave reviews and is being scouted by the big guns – he has six goals in eight this season and will need to be stopped with Korey Smith most likely to track his runs from deep. Alli is 5/2 to score and looks value as he has scored in two out of three away games this term.

We have played MK Dons seven times in their short controversial history – and we have NEVER lost to them. Interestingly three of our last four meetings have ended 2-2. That is available at 14/1. Keep an eye on this match for the rematch at Stadium MK as every time a player scored in the home tie they then went on to score in the away tie for City. Sam Baldock in 2013, Steve Brooker in 2006 and Leroy Lita in 2005 so here’s hoping Wilbraham or Agard get on the scoresheet this weekend!

I genuinely do think that MK Dons do offer great value in this match – despite their awful record against us, so my long shot will be MK Dons to win and both teams to score at 24/5.

Deli Alli Anytime Scorer @ 5/2– BET NOW

I think the top prospect and player of the moment will cause us problems this weekend. His runs from deep will cause us difficulties – see the goals we conceded against Fleetwood for proof of that and a player at 5/2 to score with a scoring record of six goals in eight games is not to be sniffed at!

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 26th September 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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Friday, 19 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Fleetwood Town v Bristol City

Last week Easyodds.com football tipster and City fan Ross Casey thought Doncaster would offer a stern test after winning all of their away matches this season but they came undone at Ashton Gate and were blown away 3-0.

That was a terrific result for the Robins and they then followed it up with yet another 3-0 romp away to out of sorts Port Vale on Tuesday night. Next up is our first ever trip to Fleetwood – a side two places off the play-offs but badly needing to turnaround a poor run of results.

Can the Robins continue their great 14 match unbeaten run in League One? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – last week they made us stand-alone favourites at 4/1 but after back-to-back 3-0 victories we are now a best price of 11/4. An incredible vote of confidence from the bookmakers!

Fleetwood carried on the crest of their wave to start the season terrifically well but have tailed off a little in recent weeks slipping to eighth – still way above their weight in terms of history. Their matches this season have plenty of interesting trends we can look at so let’s get to it!”

BRISTOL CITY – 31/20 (BetVictor)
FLEETWOOD – 11/5 (BoyleSports)
DRAW – 49/20 (MarathonBet)

After pointing out that we had only ever won by the single goal before the Scunthorpe game City have been running riot! A 2-0 win over the Iron was followed up by tremendous 3-0 victories over Donny and Port Vale.

This has been a truly brilliant start to the season – our best for over 100 years! Six wins and two draws mean we have 20 points and top the League One table unbeaten. A large part of our success has been the improved defence. We have kept three clean sheets on the bounce now and Frankie Fielding and company are a best price 9/4 to keep another on Saturday.

We have scored 15 goals this season and with the defence only conceding four goals thus far we look like a side that will continue to win or at least draw matches – a new experience for some younger City fans!

We have covered a minus one handicap in the last three matches and if you believe we can again win by more than one goal then the best price available is 4/1.

I have to be honest and say that when we signed Aaron Wilbraham I was pretty nonplussed – this was a player nearing the end of his career with one goal in 18 months at Crystal Palace. However, his chance meeting on holiday with Steve Cotterill has been a true blessing – he has led the line brilliantly and chipped in with seven goals. Only Chesterfield’s Eoin Doyle has more to his name in League One. Wilbz is 11/2 to finish the season as top scorer which would be a feat as Baldock was last season too. The target man is up against the huge Nathan Pond on Saturday which will be a real battle – but both he (19/10) and Aden Flint (12/1) are valid options in the anytime goalscorer market.

Fleetwood are an interesting side to look at in terms of betting. They are unbeaten at home – which is the main reason we are odds against to win (31/20 best price) but they are on a poor run of no win in six matches.

Their tight Highbury ground is a tough place to get a result, and their defence is excellent. They have only conceded four goals in eight matches. Their clean sheet value is dwindled slightly by the fact we are so free-scoring but that record cannot be ignored and some may fancy a Fleetwood shutout at 11/4.

Their forward line is not doing so well though – they have not scored in their last three matches and only scored seven goals in all of their 10 matches this term. Considering that there have only been five goals scored at Highbury all season the bet here could well be under 2.5 goals to be scored. A tight defence and a goal shy attack may well point towards that. Best price of 5/6 on that one.

We have never played at Highbury against Fleetwood. We have however beaten Arsenal at Highbury FOUR times in our history. Ave’ that Gooners!

I do believe this one will be tight and I think a draw may be on the cards personally – but I think with tight matches against well-drilled defences sometimes it takes a piece of individual brilliance to unlock a backline so I fancy Luke Freeman to score at 5/1. He has come close with his free-kicks plenty of times this season already and he could well come up trumps for us if things in open play aren’t going according to plan.

Draw @ 49/20 – BET NOW

I think this offers good value at 49/20. Fleetwood haven’t lost at home so far and we haven’t lost away. Whilst they are on a poor run and we are on an excellent one a draw would still be a decent result – see Rochdale’s improved form after we drew with them at Spotland!

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 19th September 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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